| Prairie Perspective Sunflower stages a comeback by Don Lilleboe
As of 1993, for instance, there were about 18.3 million acres of wheat planted in the tri-state region of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Five years later, the figure was around 15.3 million. Barley? Tri-state planted acreage stood at just over 4 mil-lion in the spring of 1993. The 1998 figure was roughly 2.6 million, and all indicators point toward another decline in 1999. Low prices and disease have been the primary culprits. Is it possible that this region’s wheat and barley acreage could rebound to previous levels — maybe even someday exceed historical highs? Of course it’s possible. Will it happen? Perhaps. How soon? I don’t know. Let’s just say "production follows price." Let’s also remember that global population continues to swell with no downturn in sight. A striking example of how a particular segment of agriculture travels through cycles is the history of U.S. sunflower over the past quarter century. This crop had very minor status as of the mid-1960s. There was some confection acreage around the Red River Valley, but the U.S. oilseed sunflower sector was virtually nonexistent. That began to change in the late ’60s, however, as Minnesota flaxseed processors began contracting for and crushing oil-type sunflower. The industry grew steadily in the 1970s and then skyrocketed during the late part of that decade as seed exports soared. Anyone who worked around the Port of Duluth-Superior during those years has vivid memories of long lines of semi-trailers filled with sunflower seed, waiting to unload. Back in 1970, Duluth-Superior elevators shipped out 17,300 metric tons of sunflower seed; by calendar 1976, the figure stood at 289,000 metric tons. During marketing year 1979-80, more than 1.8 million metric tons of U.S. oil sunflower seed flowed into export, mainly through Duluth-Superior and on to Europe. The 1979 sunflower crop was the largest ever produced in this country: 3.4 million metric tons off 5.4 million harvested acres. It also signaled the peak of sunflower’s meteoric rise on the Northern Plains, because conditions soon "headed south." Ensuing low prices, coupled with increased disease and insect problems in the Red River Valley, helped slash 1980 acreage to 3.7 million; by mid-decade it was below 2 million. Sunflower’s struggle for a comeback during the ’80s was seriously hampered by 1981 and 1985 farm bill provisions (e.g., acreage base protection for wheat and feed grains) that hurt the economic competitiveness of non pro-gram crops like sunflower. Though not yet back to 1979 acreage levels, sunflower definitely has enjoyed renewed vigor during the current decade. A friendlier 1990 farm bill (remember "0/ 92"?) helped boost sunflower acreage, as has, more recently, the Freedom to Farm era of U.S. farm policy with its almost-total lack of planting restrictions. NAFTA also has been a boon for U.S. sunflower, facilitating continued large exports of sun oil to our best customer, Mexico. Expanding numbers of High Plains wheat producers have joined Northern Plains farmers in fitting this row crop into their rotations. The 1998 season was an excellent one for sunflower. Acreage was up by 16 percent nationally over 1997, and overall yields appeared to be very good. With wheat and barley showing negative returns for many farmers, sun-flower has been a real bright spot. The oil-type sunflower industry also is in the midst of a big transition wherein the majority of acreage is expected to convert to NuSun hybrids. These hybrids pro-duce an oil with a mid-range oleic (monounsaturated) fatty acid content, as opposed to traditional hybrids whose oil is high in linoleic, another of the essential fatty acids. NuSun oil’s characteristics make it attractive to snack food companies and commercial deep-frying users (e.g., fast-food restaurants), and the industry believes NuSun will help sun oil capture a significantly larger share of the domes-tic vegetable oil market. The commitment is for real: Projections call for about 500,000 U.S. sunflower acres to be planted to NuSun varieties in 1999 — up from 100,000 last season. Even with the current successes and optimism, however, anyone who has been around the sunflower track a few times knows that the "good times" won’t automatically roll on forever. Too many forces — domestic and foreign; some apparent and others yet unforeseen — can be counted on to threaten the shine on sunflower’s star. It will take continued hard, smart work to keep sunflower an attractive crop for farmers and the trade alike. It also will take patience during those inevitable eventual downswings in the industry’s cycle. That’s a condition with which the wheat and barley sectors can readily identify as the 1990s draw to a close. Ag writer Don Lilleboe lives in West Fargo, North Dakota.
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So much of life is inherently cyclical. Whether trying to manage a
house-hold, a company or a farm, we recognize and accept this reality. A lot of our energy
goes into trying to minimize our valleys while maximizing our peaks. Along with
intelligent planning, good manage-men and plain hard work, this endeavor usually requires
one more critical ingredient: patience. 
That last element can be tough to come by — especially when
outside pressures, economic or otherwise, intensify. Case in point is the dilemma in which
many Northern Plains wheat and barley farmers have found themselves in recent years: low
commodity prices and diseases which, when combined with the ever-rising cost of doing
business, do not allow them to even maintain profitability, much less improve it. The
result? Heightened financial (and personal) stress, more economic crises, less acreage of
certain crops and — too often — fewer farmers. 
