Some
see Asian rust as
more opportunity than threat
to Northern Plains soybeans
Not
one bushel has yet been lost to Asian rust in any U.S. soybean
field, but the issue is a leading topic in the grain markets,
rural coffee shops, the ag media and at grower m
eetings
all over the U.S. this winter. To some, the heat of the discussion
might seem overblown.
After all, this strain of soybean rust, Phakopsora pachyrizi, isn't new; it was first reported in Japan more than 100 years ago and has been dealt with in the world's largest soybean-producing region (Brazil) and other areas for years now. And it isn't as if this fungus is immune to treatment. Any crop has its share of pest threats; this is just one of them. And today's producers are better armed than ever for managing pests with an array of forecasting systems, up-to-the-minute online information, professional agronomists, application technology and preventive and curative treatment products.
So why the hype? Well, it's because soybeans are a top crop, and this drama is set upon a stage that has Asian rust in the spotlight as this year's ag drama queen.
It can be argued that no other crop influences acreage and market trends across the nation more than soybeans. That's why this issue is of interest to so many and why you can expect Asian rust to headline ag news through the 2005 harvest and beyond.
"Wheat, corn, sunflower, canola — the production and prices of every one of these crops are affected to some degree by what happens with soybeans," says Barry Coleman, executive director of the Northern Canola Growers Association. He points out that other trade sectors that depend on a steady supply of soybeans are monitoring this issue as well, from the livestock industry to tofu makers, from vegetable oil users to the growing biodiesel market.
A quick backgrounder: The presence of Asian rust has been confirmed in at least nine southern states since it was first discovered in the U.S. last November in Louisiana. The fungal disease strain is host-specific — only soybeans and several others in the legume family are vulnerable. It spreads by the same wind currents that carry wheat rust. No soybean varieties are currently resistant to it.
The fungal disease can be controlled with fungicides, but that's probably the biggest rub: fungicide applications increase production costs and cut into net returns.
In Brazil during the 2003-2004 season, it was estimated that 95 percent of the soybean acreage was treated with sprays to control Asian rust. Short-season varieties only required one spray, while long-season varieties needed two or three applications. The number of applications needed to control the disease on soybeans in the U.S. will depend in part on the stage of crop development when rust is found, expected weather conditions and the economics of disease control, according to the North Central Soybean Research Program.
Here in the Northern Plains, Asian rust is recognized as both a threat and an opportunity. If you talk to northern growers — an always optimistic bunch to begin with — they'll tell you that at least in these parts, the odds favor opportunity. "We could become the new Soybean Belt," says one grower in Cass County, N.D., the top soybean producing county in a nation that has already seen a south-to-north shift in soybean production.
Indeed, northern-grown beans figure to be the least threatened by Asian rust, which is unlikely to overwinter and survive our low temperatures. Forecasting systems will allow northern growers to track the spread of Asian rust, giving them a management advantage. And even if/when spores are blown northward, the disease still needs an environment that will favor infection and disease spread.
Northern growers are (quietly) hoping that the threat of Asian rust will lead to fewer acres of beans in the South (in favor of more corn and cotton) and thus less production there. They are also hoping (quietly again) that Asian rust "scares" will breathe life into a lackluster market.
Soybean acreage in fringe production areas of the Northern Plains is actually expected to decline this year, not because of Asian rust concerns but because of better prices for other crops. In the Red River Valley, however, now more of a beanbasket than a breadbasket, expect growers to sow soy without blinking. They'll certainly keep an eye on Asian rust, but are confident that this particular deck of cards is stacked in their favor.
"I believe that the area of northern Minnesota and most of North Dakota is sitting in about the best geography to bypass the possibility of a major threat, but that doesn't mean it couldn't happen," says Jason Hanson, an agronomist with Agriliance, Devils Lake, N.D. "Chances are that something else will be a bigger issue for our soybean acres this next growing season — but let's not be unprepared."