Used to be that production agriculture was all about the Three F’s — Food, Feed and Fiber. In recent years, the ag world has added a fourth F — Fuel. And look how quickly that fourth F is challenging the first F for top billing.

However, should the priority of American agriculture be ‘Fuel, Food, Feed and Fiber’ or ‘Food, Fuel, Feed and Fiber’? The USDA’s mission statement says nothing about fuel. (“We provide leadership on food, agriculture, natural resources and related issues based on sound public policy, the best available science, and efficient management.”) Nevertheless, the title of the recent 83rd annual USDA Outlook Forum was “Agriculture at the Crossroads: Energy, Farm and Rural Policy,” with a significant focus on renewable fuels. [More about speeches and information presented at the forum can be found at www.usda.gov/oce/forum.]

The 2002 Farm Bill was the first farm bill to contain an energy title, with modest measures designed to promote the development of ag-based renewable fuels. Energy wasn’t even included in the official title of the 2002 Farm Bill, “The Farm Security and Rural Development Act of 2002.” However, I’ll betcha five new George Washington dollar coins that the word “energy” will be inserted somewhere within the title of the new farm bill.

From a policy standpoint, it’s actually the Energy Security Act of 2005 that’s behind the surge in biofuels, with a renewable fuels standard that calls for a minimum of 7.5 billion gallons of ethanol and biodiesel to be used across the nation by 2012.

I hate to use the expression “new paradigm” because it’s such a cliché, but that’s exactly what this new ballgame of farming for fuel is to U.S. agriculture; this new paradigm (there I said it again) is both invigorating agriculture and turning it on its head. And it’s all being driven by a freight train, the corn-fueled Ethanol Express.

According to the USDA, corn used for ethanol production in the U.S. has risen from 1.3 billion bushels in 2004-05, to 1.6 in 2005-06, to an estimated 2.1 in 2006-07, almost as much as estimated corn exports. By 2009, ethanol is expected to consume 30 percent of the U.S. corn crop.

More corn is needed to fuel the ethanol boom, reflected in the phenomenally bullish grain markets, with various crop sectors bidding and competing for acreage. So this winter, grain farmers have been enticed by $4 corn futures, $5 wheat futures, $8 soybean futures and unprecedented $16 bids for oil sunflower. Traditional pricing trends and supply/demand fundamentals are being challenged. Case in point: production and stocks of dry edible beans are down, and exports and prices are up, yet intense competition with other crops for acres could mean a decline in U.S. dry bean acreage in 2007.

While I’m happy for grain producers, and want our dependence on foreign oil broken as much as anyone, I empathize with livestock producers who are faced with increased feed costs, importers concerned about grain supply, agronomists concerned about a corn-on-corn monoculture and others concerned about the long-term effects that the corn-for-ethanol demand may have on such farm factors as transportation logistics and water supply.

I tend to agree with international oilseeds market consultant John Baize, who says that while there’s plenty reason for excitement about the booming biofuels market, there are also good reasons not to throw caution to the wind. “I just want diversity in supply and types of energy,” says Baize. “Mother Nature can be as unpredictable as the Middle East. We can’t go too much in one direction. We need to look at other energy sources, too.”

Tracy Sayler is an ag writer based near Fargo, N.D.